Valencia, Twins stay hot in rout of Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Valencia knocked in three and collected four more hits while Carl Pavano turned in his eighth consecutive winning decision in an 11-2 Twins victory over Kansas City.

Valencia was coming off a 4-for-4 performance in Monday's 19-1 shellacking of the Royals and is 8-for-9 in the series. Joe Mauer, who was 5-for-5 with a career-high seven RBI on Monday, drove in another two runs with two hits in the middle test to this three-game set.

J.J. Hardy hit a solo home run and added a run-scoring single amid a three-hit game and Michael Cuddyer added three hits and two RBI to the win, Minnesota's fourth straight and sixth in the last seven games.

The Twins have racked up 47 runs and 72 hits over their current four-game torrent and reached double-digit runs for the third straight game. Over the last seven games, Minnesota has outscored the competition 60-12.

Pavano (13-6), meanwhile, reached 98 pitches in five innings, but held the Royals to five hits and a run over that time to stretch an unbeaten streak to 10 starts dating back to June 9. The Twins have gone 9-1 in those games.

Bruce Chen (5-5) was knocked around for 11 hits and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to take the loss, Kansas City's fifth in six games. Scott Podsednik had two hits and drove in a run, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.

Minnesota paced itself in the early going with a mere four runs in the first three innings. Cuddyer chased home Mauer with a two-out single and Valencia did the same to score Delmon Young in the game's first frame.

Valencia and Hardy had back-to-back RBI singles with one out in the third for a 4-0 margin. Jose Guillen interrupted the visitors' scoring with a sacrifice fly in the fifth, but the Twins were right back at it in their next at-bat. Jason Repko singled in Drew Butera and Mauer added a sac fly in the sixth after Kyle Farnsworth took over for Chen.

Podsednik knocked in Alex Gordon with a two-out hit in the bottom half, but Hardy blasted a home run off Robinson Tejeda in the seventh to erase the run and make it 7-2.

Minnesota tacked on four more in the eighth as Mauer, Young, Cuddyer and Valencia strung together consecutive two-out RBI hits off Victor Marte.

Game Notes

The Twins had 19 hits Tuesday a night after tying their season high with 20. Young had two hits and scored three runs...Minnesota improved to 9-3 since the All-Star break...Pavano walked three and struck out two. He had pitched into the seventh inning in each of his previous 12 trips to the mound. The veteran right-hander has also won five straight decisions on the road, where he's compiled a 7-3 record in 11 starts thus far in 2010. It was Pavano's fourth overall matchup with the Royals this season, as he improved to 3-1 in 2010 and 7-5 in 13 lifetime games (12 starts) against them...The Twins have won eight of 10 versus the Royals this year, as well as 16 of the last 20 overall meetings between the teams. Minnesota is also 18-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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